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Assumptions
Valuation of assets
The fair value, i.e. the investment value of the properties of which
transaction costs are deducted, is included in the consolidated bal-
ance sheet. For the 2015 provisional balance sheet, this valuation
is entered as an overall figure for the entire portfolio, increased by
major renovation expenses.
Maintenance and repairs – major renovation works
The forecasts by building include both the repair and maintenance
costs, which are entered under operating expenses, and the major
renovation costs, which are capitalised and met from self-financ-
ing or borrowing. The large-scale renovation expenses taken into
account in the forecast amount respectively to €30.33 million for
the office buildings and €2.88 million for the cafés/restaurants.
Investments and divestments
The forecast takes into account the following investment and
divestment projects, provided that Cofinimmo is legally bound:
•
The acquisition of nursing homes in Belgium, France and the
Netherlands for a total amount of €37.94 million resulting from
the delivery of new units or the extension of existing units;
•
The disposal of MAAF insurance branches for €0.44 million,
corresponding to firm commitments. Moreover, assumptions
were made with regard to the disposal of the apartments of the
Livingstone I and Woluwe 34 buildings.
Forecasts 2015
Rents
Rent forecasts include assumptions for each lease as to tenant
departures, analysed on a case-by-case basis, and, in the event of
tenant departure, redecoration costs, a period of rental vacancy,
rental charges and taxes on unlet space plus agency commissions
when the space is relet. Letting forecasts are based on the current
market situation, without assuming either a possible upturn or
deterioration in the market.
The property result also incorporates the writeback of lease pay-
ments sold and discounted relating to the gradual reconstitution
of the full value of buildings which leases have been sold to a third
party.
A 1% variation either way in the occupancy rate leads to a cumula-
tive increase or reduction in the net current result per share and per
year of €0.04. The ongoing contracts are indexed.
Inflation
The inflation rate used for the evolution of rents amounts to 1.20%
for the leases being indexed in 2015. The sensitivity of the forecast
to changes in the inflation rate is low over the considered period. A
0.5% variation either way from the predicted inflation rate leads to a
cumulative increase or reduction in the net current result per share
and per year of €0.05.
Financial charges
The calculation of financial charges is based on the assumption
that interest rates will evolve as anticipated by the future rates
curve, and on the current bank and bond borrowings. Considering
the hedging instruments in place, the estimated cost of debt in
2015 should be below 3.00% (margins included). No assumptions
were made as to changes in the value of the financial instruments
due to the evolution of interest rates, either on the balance sheet or
under the income statement.
Consolidated income statement
Given the uncertainty of a forward projection of the future market
values of the properties, no reliable assessed forecast can be
provided for the unrealised result on the portfolio.
This result will depend on trends in the rental market, capitalisation
rates as well as anticipated renovation costs of buildings.
Changes in shareholders’ equity will depend on the current result,
the result on the portfolio and the dividend distribution.
Shareholders’ equity is presented before distribution of the divi-
dends for the financial year.
Net current result per share
Based on the current expectations and in the absence of major
unforeseen events, the Group has set an objective for its net
current result – Group share (excluding IAS 39 impact) of €6.85 per
share for the financial year 2015, a 2.24% increase compared to the
financial year 2014 (€6.70). The net current result (excluding IAS 39
impact) forecasted for 2015 amounts to €125.4 million, against a
net current result (excluding IAS 39 impact) of 2014 of €120.5 mil-
lion. The higher net current result (excluding IAS 39 impact) per
share is mainly the result of the decrease of the financial charges
2015 Investment programme (x €1,000,000)
0
5
10
15
25
20
13.3
9.8
10.1
4.7
8.5
9.1
8.4
4.3
Property of distribution networks
Healthcare real estate
Offices
0.7
0.1
1.2
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
0.4
39